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England, Croatia and the Czech Republic compete for the first place in the group. Can Scotland create miracles by virtue of the rules of European Cup group promotion

  • Released on: December 7, 2023
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The last round of Group D of the European Cup will start at 3:00 a.m. on June 23. England, Czech Republic, Croatia and Scotland will fight for the first place in the group and the promotion to the last 16. At present, England and the Czech Republic have the same score of 4 points, while Croatia and Scotland each have 1 point. The situation of group qualification is shown in the table below:

The last round of Group D of the European Cup will start at 3:00 a.m. on June 23. England, Czech Republic, Croatia and Scotland will fight for the first place in the group and the promotion to the last 16. At present, England and the Czech Republic have the same score of 4 points, while Croatia and Scotland each have 1 point. The situation of group qualification is shown in the table below:

team integral Goal difference Number of goals Outgoing probability
Czech Republic four +2 three 99.9%
England four +1 one 99.9%
Croatia one -1 one 25.1%
Scotland one -2 zero 1.1%

It can be seen from the table that the Czech Republic and England have locked the qualification quota in advance, but the group ranking has not yet been determined. If the two teams are tied, the Czech Republic will rank first in the group by virtue of goal difference advantage, and England will rank second. If one side wins, the winner will become the first in the group, and the loser will be reduced to the second. The importance of the first place in the group is that they will avoid such strong enemies as France, Germany and Portugal in the eighth finals and face the third place in Group F with relatively little difficulty.

Croatia and Scotland are facing a life and death battle. They must win to be able to qualify. Croatia has a relatively high probability of qualification, because their goal difference and goals are better than Scotland. If they can defeat Scotland, they will be promoted as the third in the group, unless the third place in other groups exceeds them. Scotland's chances of qualification are very slim. They not only need to win Croatia, but also rely on the poor performance of the third place in other groups to create miracles.

It is worth mentioning that the confrontation between Scotland and England is called the "Dalian Derby" of the European Cup, because the two teams are the first national teams in the world, and their first confrontation can be traced back to 1872. The two teams also met once in the history of the European Cup. It was in the 1996 group match that England defeated Scotland 2-0 with Gascoigne's classic volley. Twenty five years later, the two teams meet again. Whether Scotland can avenge with one stone or whether England will be the last to laugh again remains to be seen.

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